Antonio Aguirre Data Modeling | Bayesian Statistics | Machine Learning

Antonio Aguirre

Antonio Aguirre

I'm a Ph.D. candidate in Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, advised by Bruno Sansó and Raquel Prado. My research centers on Bayesian time series forecasting, quantile modeling, and uncertainty quantification, with an emphasis on scalable variational inference. I also explore modern machine learning methods for forecasting, including Deep Echo State Networks (Deep ESN).

Ongoing Projects

  • Quantile-Based Forecast Correction: Bayesian correction and synthesis of river flow forecasts (submitted to Environmetrics).
  • Deep ESN Forecasting: Deep Echo State Networks for nonlinear dynamics and short-term prediction.
  • Scalable Bayesian Inference: Variational Bayes and Sequential Monte Carlo for real-time updating in operational settings.
  • TA Training Program: Co-organizing a teaching training series focused on inclusive teaching and active learning.

Applied and Professional Experience

  • Quantitative Researcher, Delos Financial Technologies: Built evaluation workflows, automated backtests on AWS, and standardized model diagnostics (2025).
  • Data Analyst, NeatLeaf Inc.: Developed data pipelines and spatiotemporal models for greenhouse telemetry and anomaly detection (2021-2022).
  • Data Analyst, Banco de México: Built pipelines for image datasets, anomaly classification models, and forecasting prototypes (2018-2019).
  • Computer Systems Coordinator, UCSC Statistics: Administer Linux servers and build automation for research workflows (2024-present).

Teaching and Mentoring

  • Graduate Student Instructor: Data Visualization (STAT 80B), Spring 2025.
  • Teaching Assistant: Led discussion sections and supported statistics and probability courses (2021-present).
  • TA Training Program: Co-organize workshops on inclusive teaching and active learning.
  • ASA DataFest Mentor: Guided student teams on modeling and communication (2023).

Education

Beyond Research

Outside of work, I enjoy baking bread, cooking Mexican dishes, reading history, the philosophy of science, and learning German.

If you'd like to connect or discuss ideas, feel free to reach out. Thanks for stopping by!